What’s Next for CPG Packaging: Resilience, Rebound, and Reinvention

Published: February 23, 2026

By Rebecca Marciniak, Partner, Roland Berger

The global packaging industry remains one of the most stable and strategically essential sectors in manufacturing. Valued at over $1 trillion worldwide, it is closely connected to consumer goods, food and beverages, and e-commerce segments that continue to grow despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Although demand and input costs experienced sharp fluctuations from 2020 to 2023, recent data show that the sector is gradually moving to steady, with low single-digit growth, generally aligned with the GDP of a region.

What is emerging now is a packaging industry characterized by weakened consumer demand, operational efficiency and targeted innovation. Roland Berger’s analysis of publicly traded packaging companies confirms that the extreme swings during the COVID period — demand surges followed by destocking and normalization — were temporary. Sector revenues and margins are slowly stabilizing along with overall manufacturing output.

1. From Stability to Strategic Agility

Historically, packaging growth has followed the pattern of global manufacturing GDP. That connection was briefly weakened during the pandemic as supply chains stalled and consumer buying habits changed. The industry is shifting toward agility — adjusting production, sourcing, and inventory systems to handle volatility better. More manufacturers have diversified substrates and suppliers, regionalized parts of their supply chains, and invested in automation to address ongoing labor shortages.

According to PMMI’s 2025 State of the Industry report, over 70% of North American packaging operations plan to increase automation investments through 2026. Equipment at Pack Expo 2025 highlights this trend: robotics, vision systems, and data-connected line analytics are standard tools to improve throughput and overall equipment effectiveness (OEE).

2. Sustainability: Resetting the Agenda

Sustainability remains an ambition for many FMCGs and converters, although the focus has shifted toward more operational and data-driven approaches. Economical solutions, primarily driven by FMCG customers and brands, have taken on more importance given some of the waning regulatory momentum in the U.S. Most major players are concentrating on three measurable levers: lightweighting, recyclability, and increasing the use of recycled content.

Progress is clear. Industry data show that recycled content in rigid plastic packaging has grown yearly, and leading paper-based converters report double-digit growth in fiber-based formats. Broader mandates—such as extended producer responsibility (EPR) programs—continue to expand at the state level in the U.S., but they remain inconsistent across different jurisdictions. Digital traceability tools and “material passports” are being tested by some brand owners but have not yet been widely adopted. In the near term, the focus will be on achievable, verified improvements that meet performance and cost goals.

3. Consumer Demand: Value and Accessibility

U.S. consumer spending has stabilized after pandemic stimulus and inflation shocks. Packaging demand has followed, emphasizing essential and convenient categories like food, beverages, and household goods. Pack sizes and prices are adjusting to affordability trends. Retail data show an increase in smaller, single-serve packages and private-label products—segments that require high-volume, cost-efficient packaging. This benefits converters with flexible production and quick changeover systems.

According to analysts, packaging industry resilience can be achieved through smarter operations, data-driven sustainability, and technology that delivers tangible productivity improvements. © Yingyaipumi – stock.adobe.com

4. Digitalization in Operations

As converters look to maintain and expand their margins, digital tools quietly transform packaging production. Predictive maintenance, line-simulation software, and connected equipment analytics are increasingly common among large converters and machinery OEMs. These systems help reduce unplanned downtime and optimize material use—directly supporting cost control. The practical application is straightforward: digitalization allows producers to maintain output with limited labor resources and gain better visibility across operations. Adoption is still uneven but accelerating as technology costs decline and integration standards improve.

5. Steady Growth, Prudent Investment

Industry fundamentals show steady, modest growth. On a volume basis, global packaging demand is expected to increase by about ~3% annually through 2028, driven by population growth, urbanization, and ongoing demand for packaged consumer products. Key strategic priorities for the next cycle include:

• Ensuring operational resilience through diversified sourcing and automation.
• Development of a portfolio that meets macro customer and consumer trends
• Achieving measurable sustainability improvements supported by verified data.
• Maintaining capital discipline as companies balance modernization efforts with protecting margins.

Overall, the packaging industry is emerging from a correction period stronger, leaner, and more digitally prepared.

A Practical Path Forward

Packaging has long been a staple in consumer markets. The next decade will be characterized not by radical change but by steady execution — smarter operations, data-driven sustainability, and technology that delivers tangible productivity improvements. Rather than excitement or hype, this pragmatic approach will continue to define the industry’s resilience.

About the Author

Rebecca Marciniak is a Partner who joined Roland Berger in 2013. She is an expert in challenging core assumptions and co-creating innovative solutions to help companies transform and win in the marketplace. Rebecca focuses on packaging for North America, with an emphasis especially in consumer end markets, health care and industrials. She has advised leading global players to strategize and execute material and portfolio transformations, enter markets, conduct M&A and operational improvement. Visit: https://www.rolandberger.com/en/