PCI World BOPP Study Reveals China Impact Maybe Not as Dramatic as Some Fear

BANBURY, OXON, U.K.—A new study on the 3.2 million tonne world BOPP film market by UK-based market intelligence firm PCI Consulting Ltd. concludes the effect on the world supply/demand balance of planned capacity increases in China may not be as dramatic as some fear.

According to PCI, China currently has around 900,000 tonnes of capacity to produce biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP), but is only running at an estimated 72% utilization level. "Publicized plans to install another 400,000 tonnes over the next two years represent a 44 percent increase in Chinese capacity and also represent around half the world's increases in capacity ove the same period. Many industry plays, fearful of this rapid expansion, are asking: 'Where is it all going to go?'," says PCI's press release.

Author of The World BOPP Film Market 2002 Simon King explains:

The numbers certainly look dramatic, but our research and analysis suggest that the reality will be different. Firstly, we don't believe that all of the announced sales contracts will come to fruition; secondly, those projects that are implemented will take two to three years to reach full utilization; thirdly, with Chinese demand for BOPP films growing more than 10 percent per year, within in two years, a large proportion of the extra capacity could be absorbed by the growth in domestic demand; and finally, China currently imports around 200,000 tonnes of BOPP film annually, and we see much of this volume being substituted by domestic suppliers in the future. As a result, the rapid expansion of the Chinese BOPP film industry is likely to have little impact on external markets.
Study highlights include:
  • In the last five years to 2002, world BOPP film demand has grown by an average of 9 percent per annum or 1.1 million tonnes.
  • BOPP film producers have kept pace with demand growth by installing an additional 1.15 million tonnes—48 percent of the total going into China.
  • Western Europe (including Turkey) was the largest BOPP film market in 2002, but Chinese demand and capacity is expected to expand rapidly in the next five years.
  • Five end uses—savory snacks, confectionery, baked goods, dried foods, and adhesive tape—accounted for two-thirds of demand for BOPP film in the world in 2002.

According to PCI, The World BOPP Film Market 2002 covers the world market overall and by region, providing statistical data and trends from 1997 to 2007 on supply/demand balance and capacity utilization. It also profiles the world's leading BOPP film producers and examines growth drivers and future prospects, adds the firm. For more information, contact PCI at +44 1295 817670; email: info@pcifilms.com. Visit PCI at pcifilms.com.



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